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08 December 2011

In Brief: New reports on climate change impact in 10 developing countries

Photo: Shermaine Ho/IRIN
Developing countries are particularly vulnerable to climate change

DURBAN, 8 December 2011 (IRIN) - A series of examining reports the impact of climate change in 23 countries has been launched on the sidelines of the UN climate talks in Durban. South Africa.

The reports produced by the UK Met Office Hadley Centre assess the latest research and make projections using a comprehensive range of 21 climate models also used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

There are 10 developing countries among the 23, which is a mix of major economies and those particularly vulnerable to climate change. Most studies on vulnerable and developing countries are based on single climate models or limited variables making the projections not that authoritative and comprehensive.

Among the findings listed in the reports is that there is great uncertainty about how seasonal rains will behave, but flooding is likely to increase by the end of the century in Bangladesh, vulnerability to water stress in Egypt will rise, while there is not enough information to make accurate predictions about droughts in the long term in Kenya.

The reports looked at climate data recorded from 1960 to 2010, and the projections are for the period 2050 to 2100. The developing countries under scrutiny are Bangladesh, Brazil, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Mexico, Peru and South Africa.