05h45 - Moderate rain falling at times in the Heiderand, Mossel Bay area. It is still dark and gloomy with 8/8 clouds.. We experienced strong wind overnight before it started to rain early this morning. Wind still blowing but has calm down. 12mm rain so far.
Personal observation: It would appear that this rain is a result of a cut-off low developing in the southern parts of the Cape moving towards Kwazulu Natal. I observed large cumulonimbus clouds yesterday evening just off-shore of Mossel Bay. With the wind now blowing SSE it is pushing moist air in over the Southern Cape which result in moderate rain along the Southern Cape. If the cut-off low develops further we could expect heavy rain in the parts of the Southern Cape, Eastern Cape and Kwazulu Natal areas today and tomorrow. Due to the irregular nature of a cut-off low, the characteristics are generally very difficult to predict.
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All images courtesy: U.S. National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)+ NOAA
More on cut-off lows available HERE.
There is also a 60 - 80 % chance for severe thunderstorms over parts the Eastern Cape and Kwazulu Natal. See SA National Weather Warning.